Berkeley City Council · District 1 · The numbers

District 1
Data Book

Who lives, votes, and decides in northwest Berkeley — built from public census and election data, not vibes. Because a campaign that promises accountability should start by showing its own work.

Sources: U.S. Census ACS (2020–24 & 2014–18), 2020 Census redistricting file, California Statewide Database (2022 & 2024). District-level figures are tract/precinct apportionments (±1–2 pts). Planning intelligence, not gospel.

// Snapshot

District 1 is Berkeley in miniature.

It lands near the citywide median on income, age, education, and renter share, with the most balanced racial mix of any non-student district. There's no dominant bloc to chase — which is exactly why a broad, services-first message fits here.

10,682
Registered voters
2,500–3,100
Votes to win (2026)
~52%
Renters
76%
Democrat · 17% independent
// The people

Who lives here

MetricDistrict 1Citywide
Population (2020)15,757124,400
White51%50%
Asian15%20%
Hispanic/Latino14%14%
Black10%8%
Median age4036
Median household income$119k$119k
Bachelor's degree or higher74%75%
Foreign-born19%21%
Renter-occupied homes~52%~55%
Map of renter share by census tract across Berkeley with District 1 highlighted
Renter share by census tract. D1 sits mid-pack at ~52% — not the renter supermajority of the student district (D7, ~93%).
Read: D1 is the city's median district. A broad, centrist, services-first message fits the data better than any niche appeal.
// The electorate

How D1 is registered

~10,682 registered voters: 76% Democrat, 17% No Party Preference, 3% Republican. Surname-based estimates put registrants at ~9.5% Latino and ~10% Asian (Chinese 4.6%, Indian 1.8%, Japanese 1.7%, Vietnamese 1.1%, Filipino 1.0%, Korean 0.7%), with ~7.8% Jewish-surname.

Precinct map of independent registration and party mix by district
Independents (No Party Preference) by precinct, and party registration by council district.
Read: In a 76%-Democratic, nonpartisan, ranked-choice race, party label is nearly meaningless. The deciding variables are turnout and the ~17% independents — the persuadable middle.
// Turnout & the 2026 math

What it takes to win

ElectionCycleTurnout
D1, Nov 2024Presidential78.9%
Berkeley, Nov 2024Presidential75.4%
Berkeley, Nov 2022Governor64.5%

2026 is a governor year — turnout runs ~11 points below presidential. Plan for a 2022-size electorate: ~6,900 ballots cast in D1, ~6,200 marking the council race, and a ranked-choice win number of roughly 2,500–3,100 votes.

Funnel showing the path from registered voters to votes needed to win District 1 in 2026
The 2026 D1 vote universe. Governor-year turnout makes the win number small and reachable.
Read: Model the electorate on 2022, not 2024. The win number is small and knowable — a disciplined door-and-mail program can reach most of the ~6,000 likely council voters.
// Daily life

How D1 lives

~40%
Work from home
26%
Commute car-free (transit/walk/bike)
$2,331
Median gross rent / mo
~45%
Renters cost-burdened (30%+)
Read: A district that's 40% work-from-home and 26% car-free cares about local quality of life — clean safe streets, reliable transit, walkability — more than a commuter suburb. And with ~45% of renters cost-burdened, the housing-cost pain is real: acknowledge it, and answer it with build-more, not dismissal.
// Strategy

What the data says to do

  1. Run broad, not narrow. D1 is the city's median district — no dominant bloc.
  2. ~2,500–3,100 votes wins. Build a contact list of ~6,000 likely 2026 council voters from the voter file.
  3. Model 2026 on 2022, not 2024. Governor-year turnout; target high-propensity voters first.
  4. Party is noise; turnout and the 17% independents are the signal.
  5. The commute profile sells the brand. 40% WFH + 26% car-free → streets, transit, walkability, services.
  6. Don't be glib on housing cost. ~45% of renters are burdened — acknowledge it, offer the build-more answer.
// Sources

Show your work

DataSourceConfidence
Race, population2020 Census redistricting fileHigh
CVAP, tenure (2014–18)ACS 2014–2018High
Income, age, education, commute, housingACS 2020–2024 (apportioned)Moderate
Registration & partyCA Statewide Database, Nov 2024High / Moderate
Turnout & 2026 projectionCA Statewide Database 2022 & 2024High / Low–Mod
Surname ethnicitySWDB surname estimateLow–Moderate

Limits: Alameda uses large consolidated precincts (~31 cover Berkeley, ~3 in D1), so precinct analysis is coarse. District figures are area-apportioned. The 2026 win number is a planning range — it moves with field size, undervote, and ranked-choice exhaustion.