Hot Topics · 05 Legislation Planning

Five dates between September and June settle the homelessness money.

Between September 2026 and June 2027, five dated decisions will settle how many shelter beds Berkeley keeps, what happens to $14.9 million the city transferred but never programmed, and whether the contracting fix the Auditor asked for ever becomes law. None of them will be framed as "the homelessness debate." All of them are the homelessness debate.

Scope, stated up front: this first docket covers one slice of the city — the homelessness and behavioral-health money. It's the slice I've mapped end to end, so it's where the dated questions are ready. The same treatment for the entire city budget — the General Fund, the $29 million structural deficit, every department — is coming as this page's next chapter.

What follows is the docket: what already happened, what is scheduled next, and the specific question I will bring to each date — as a candidate at public comment now, and from the D1 seat if you send me there. Where a date is my estimate from the city's own prior cycles rather than a posted agenda, it says (expected).

Last updated 26 August 2026

The short version

  1. September 2026 — the state announces ERF Round 5 awards. Berkeley's approved behavioral-health plan discloses, in its own words, a $6.85 million funding cliff across three interim-housing programs by 2028. If new state money doesn't land, the successor-funding question becomes urgent that week.
  2. October 13, 2026 — the contracting fix is due back at Budget & Finance. The Auditor found $43 million in uncompeted FY24 service contracts; the proposed BMC 7.18 amendment was referred to committee in April and has not been heard since. It either comes back with teeth, or it dies quietly.
  3. Fall 2026 (expected) — the next allocation cycle for the Measure P fund. "Measure P" is two things at once: the 2018 ballot measure that raised the transfer tax, and the city fund where those receipts are tracked and allocated to homeless services. The last allocation cycle ran through Council in late October; the fund's own projection is a balance of negative $22.8 million by FY 2029. Allocating another year without a sustainability table is flying without instruments.
  4. Spring 2027 (expected) — the first BHSA Annual Update. The three-year plan transferred $18.19 million of unspent mental-health money into its new funding categories — and then programmed only about $3.3 million of it. The annual update is where the other $14.9 million either gets a plan or gets another year of silence.
  5. June 2027 — the FY28 mid-cycle budget update. Where the eliminated crisis team, the encampment wellness project's expiring grant, and the interim-housing backfill actually get decided. Every expiring dollar on this page lands on that agenda.
Where I stand

Show up with the date circled.

Nothing on this page alleges misspending. The behavioral-health plan's arithmetic foots to the penny — I checked. What it shows instead is a planning gap: money moved on paper but not programmed, promises made in one document while the budget cut their foundations in another, and expiring grants with no named successor. Those are fixable, and each has a scheduled moment where fixing it is one motion.

  • Ask 01 · at the BHSA Annual Update Program the $14.9 million — or publish the reason for holding it.

    The plan's own budget tables transfer $18,193,420 of unspent MHSA funds into the three new components, then program only the legally dedicated ~$3.3 million. Housing receives $4.5 million of the transfer and budgets zero of it. A revenue hedge may be defensible — the state fund swings 30% with capital-gains years — but a hedge you never state is just idle money during a shelter shortage. Say which it is, in the update, in writing.

  • Ask 02 · before the Measure P fund allocation vote A five-year sustainability table, published first.

    The City Manager's own memo projects the Measure P fund from +$5.6 million in FY24 to −$22.8 million in FY29 under current allocations. And because Measure P is legally a general tax, its "fund" is a policy ledger, not a lockbox — a negative balance doesn't pause the spending, it quietly shifts the gap onto the same General Fund that carries the citywide deficit. The advisory panel and Council should see, on one page, what each allocation level does to that trajectory under a weak, base, and strong housing market — before voting, not after.

  • Ask 03 · at the FY28 budget update A named successor for every expiring dollar.

    The record on this page shows four funding streams dying in sequence: the state grant for shelter operations (already expired, December 2025), the interim-housing money behind the $6.85 million cliff (by 2028), the encampment wellness project's innovation funds (exhausted during FY 2028-29), and the opioid-settlement line (zero after FY28). Each one gets a named successor source or a stated end-of-service date. No silent expirations.

  • Ask 04 · at Budget & Finance, October 13 Pass the contracting fix — with a reporting requirement attached.

    The proposed BMC 7.18 amendment would finally require competitive solicitation for service contracts over $100,000. It should also cover amendments — the Auditor found contracts that started under $50,000 and grew by an average of $218,000 — and require an annual public report. If it stalls again, that is itself a finding.

  • Ask 05 · in every plan, every year One baseline, one target, one date, per program.

    The three-year behavioral-health plan contains projected headcounts and not a single numeric target. The city already collects the baselines; it just never connects them to a promise. This is the subject of its own page — Where's the scorecard? — and it is the condition I would attach to every annual update I vote on.

To be clear about what this is not

This is not a claim that anyone misspent a dollar, and not a proposal to cut these programs. It is a schedule. Cities reveal their priorities on consent calendars and committee agendas, in months when nobody is watching. The dates marked (expected) are estimates from the city's own prior cycles and are corrected here the day an agenda posts. If I have a date or a number wrong, tell me and the page changes.

The record

What already happened

The docket ahead only makes sense against the last twelve months. Every item is traceable to a public document linked at the bottom of this page.

One name, two things: "Measure P"

The measure is what voters passed in November 2018, with 72% of the vote: an increase in the transfer tax on property sales over $1.5 million. The fund is the ledger where the city tracks those receipts and from which it allocates homelessness money each year — the thing that can run a balance, and whose balance is projected at −$22.8 million by FY29. The distinction matters because Measure P is legally a general tax: its dollars belong to the General Fund, the advisory panel's recommendations are advisory, and a negative "fund" balance stops nothing — the gap simply lands on the General Fund alongside the citywide deficit. When this page says "Measure P allocations," it means allocations from the fund; when it says the measure, it says so. (One more naming trap while we're here: Berkeley voters also passed a city Measure W in 2024 — extending this same transfer tax from 2027 — while the county's Measure W of 2020 is an entirely different half-cent sales tax for homelessness. Different governments, different money.)

The docket ahead

$18.19M
unspent MHSA transferred by the plan
≈$14.9M
of it programmed in no year's budget
$6.85M
interim-housing cliff by 2028, per the plan
−$22.8M
Measure P fund balance projected by FY29
5
dated decisions in the next ten months
Look it up

Don't take my word for it

Everything on this page is sourced to a public document. If you think I've read one of them wrong, tell me and I'll correct the page.

Berkeley primary documents

State documents and reporting

Tell me where I'm wrong More Hot Topics