Does it work?
Useful for solving some crimes. Not shown to prevent any.
What the independent research finds. Lum et al. (2011, Virginia) found no crime
reduction in ALPR areas versus controls. Koper et al. (2022) found no deterrence difference between
ALPR-equipped and ordinary patrol. Koper & Lum (2019) found ALPRs contributed to case clearance
in roughly 1% of cases examined, and in nearly three-quarters of the cases where an ALPR was
involved it did not contribute meaningfully to resolution. A 2025 review in the Cambridge
Journal of Evidence-Based Policing concluded that computing cost-effectiveness is premature.
This literature is unusually consistent.
What the tool does do. The LAPD audited its own system for August–September 2025:
498 stolen-vehicle alerts produced 337 recoveries and 74 felony arrests in two months. That is a
real investigative return, and I am not interested in pretending otherwise.
And what it costs when it's wrong. The same LAPD audit found roughly one in
three hot-list alerts were false — 161 of 498 — caused not by camera error but by stale
records: vehicles recovered and never delisted. The Institute for Justice has documented at least 27
cases since 2018 of innocent motorists stopped at gunpoint, detained, or jailed after an ALPR error,
and calls that an undercount. That failure mode isn't fixed by buying better cameras. It's fixed by
hot-list hygiene nobody writes into a contract.
Berkeley crime, 2024 → 2025
31%↓
Commercial burglaries
21%↓
Catalytic converter thefts
Source: 2025 BPD Annual Report, as compiled by the Police Accountability Board. Over 2021–2025 the
same categories fell 33%, 70%, 13%, 48% and 57%. These declines happened under the existing
52-camera deployment, before any expansion. As the PAB put it: the case for urgency has not been
made.
One claim I could not verify
BPD's presentation states that "peer-reviewed studies show 66% better odds of clearance for cases
supported by" a real-time crime center. The deck cites no study. There is real research on
real-time crime centers and clearance, but I could not trace this specific figure to a source, and
a load-bearing statistic in a $2 million ask should come with a citation. If BPD provides one, I
will link it here and update this page.